In just four years’ time, says the data, Windows Phone 7 (or whatever version it reaches by then) will have ascended to occupy a fifth of the market and second spot overall behind Android, whose leading position is expected to stabilize somewhere around the 45 percent mark.
The close relationship between Microsoft and Nokia should not be underestimated. Nokia is one helluva smartphone hardware manufacturer and Microsoft has got something quite unique in WP7. I appreciate the generous use of beautiful typography in the UI.
The key to success for any smartphone is the complete package, the complete experience from a tight integration of hardware, OS, and apps. Android will be like Windows with the most deployments but not necessarily with the best experience. WP7 will depend largely on how intimately Microsoft and Nokia play together.
The forecast by IDC is quite optimistic in my opinion but it is anyone’s guess as to what might happen four years from now, and usually these guesses turn out to be thoroughly wrong.