First, those mainstream, non-geek, smartphone-interested, carrier-prioritizing Verizon customers â€” the buyers that will be slow to move to the iPhone because theyâ€™re waiting out their contracts â€” are a very large portion of Androidâ€™s U.S. marketshare.
Itâ€™s important to consider why they bought Android phones in the first place. Was it because they tried their friendâ€™s Droid and had to have one because it was so good? Or was it because they went into the Verizon store for their next contract renewal, they wanted an iPhone but knew it wasnâ€™t available on Verizon, the sales guys told them this was just as good as the iPhone, it looked a bit like an iPhone, and it had a buy-one-get-one-free sale?
Arment argues the next 18 months will reveal the full impact of the iPhone 4 on Verizon. But I don’t think we’ll ever get to know since in the next year and a half, Apple will unveil at least two new versions of the iPhone, which will be on Verizon from day one.