Canaccord Genuity analyst Bobby Burleson via Barron’s:
Intelâ€™s likely to offer a disappointing Q2 view, Burleson thinks, with expectations on the Street of a 10% to 15% rise in notebook sales likely to be undercut by the supply chain turmoil resulting from Japan, but also because Appleâ€™s iPad 2 tablet computer may cause notebook computers to â€œsee weak sell-throughâ€ in the quarter.
The iPad franchise has been eating away at netbooks, which is dominated by Intel’s CPUs, ever since the introduction of the first model last year. This year the iPad 2 will continue munching away, but at a faster rate.
This morning I stopped by a local Le Boulanger and a sweet old lady started telling me how excited she was about her iPad, her first ‘computer’. She shared that she liked the iPad, had access to CNN, and that she read two books on the plane. She was genuinely excited. Folks completely new to computers will most likely start off on the iPad and the first impression will be long-lasting with subsequent purchases of a computer to be updated versions of the iPad, not a netbook, notebook, desktop, or even a competing tablet.
Update: Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore via AppleInsider:
We remain skeptical whether the likes of (HP), Dell, Motorola, Samsung and RIMM etc can close the competitive gap on iPad 2. Specifically, iPad challengers must either undercut on price (negative margin implications) and/or offer a superior user experience.
In aggregate, we believe iPad will remain dominant with 70% market share. Our tablet unit estimate remains below Consensus due to our concerns that non-iPad tablets will underwhelm.
Whitmore’s 2011 tablet sales forecast increased from 40 million to 45 million. Of those 35 million are iPads. The impact on PC sales:
Apple remains the primary beneficiary of this technology transition which is increasingly coming at the expense of PC vendors (Acer, HPQ, etc.)