Gartner: iOS to Dominate Tablet Market Through 2015

Gartner:

Despite mounting competition from other operating systems (OSs), Apple’s iOS will continue to own the majority of the worldwide media tablet through 2015, according to Gartner, Inc. Due to the success of Apple’s iPad, iOS will account for 69 percent of media tablet OSs in 2011, and represent 47 percent of the media tablet market in 2015.

No one knows what will happen next year let alone four years from now, but the business of market research is to forecast and that’s what Gartner did with the hottest device today: Apple’s iPad. Gartner predicts 69% of tablets in 2011 will be iPads. That number will dwindle down to just 47% in 2015. So who’s gaining?

Google’s Android OS is forecast to increase its worldwide share of the media tablet market from 20 percent in 2011 to 39 percent in 2015. Analysts said Google’s decision not to open up the Honeycomb, its first OS version dedicated to tablets, to third parties will prevent fragmentation, but it will also slow the price decline and ultimately cap market share.

I think Google’s own Chrome OS will do some fragmentation damage and if Honeycomb becomes too difficult to play with there might be many hardware vendors that ditch Android and go toward Chrome. I also wouldn’t count out Microsoft and HP is still in the game with webOS.