Mobile PC shipment momentum is slowing, from 30% Y/Y growth in 2010, to 27% in 2011, when the market will reach 277.7 million units, according to the DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report. Decline in mini-note shipments and emerging regions is slowing growth, but notebook and tablet growth in mature markets is buoying the overall market. Shipment growth is expected to slow in the short term as compared to previous forecasts but pick up longer term, as emerging markets return to contributing at the high rates they have seen over the last several years.
I don’t buy this. DisplaySearch is focused on supply side dynamics. If Acer, Asus and other netbook suppliers are not as optimistic in the short term due to the overwhelming response of the iPad, then there might be a dip in how many mobile PCs these brands are expecting to ship. And Apple doesn’t share shipment forecasts. So the net result might be that the cautious forecast of netbooks and smaller notebook PCs might be bringing down the overall mobile PC forecast.
In Future iPad, I talked about Brazil being one of the largest untapped markets for Apple. If what DigiTimes reported is true the fifth largest economy in the world will have access to an affordable iPad in the near future. Clearly that’ll bring back momentum in emerging regions, if momentum had slowed at all.