Using the amount for Gorilla Glass sales to Apple and the Trefis widget for Corningâ€™s specialty materials revenue (below), we can assess the impact Appleâ€™s move to sapphire will have on our stock price estimate. By reducing the specialty materials revenue by $187 million for 2014, we will be able to simulate a loss of sales when Apple stops purchasing Gorilla Glass from 2014 onward. We can see that our stock price estimate for Corning declines from $18.88 to $18.56, a decrease of $0.32.
To assume Appleâ€™s move to sapphire for cover glass applications will stop at Apple seems wrong; most likely all of Apple’s competitors such as LG, Samsung, Sony, etc. will also shift to sapphire cover glass for their top-of-the-line smartphones. And that most likely will have quite a bit of an impact on Corning’s Gorilla Glass business.