Dave Hoch, Localytics:
The iPhone 5, launched in 2012, is Appleâ€™s most popular phone with a 27% share, but only leads its successor, the 5s, by a small (2%) margin. This is likely because most iPhones come with a cheaper price if the consumer locks into a two-year contract, putting the average consumer on a two-year upgrade cycle. With the new iPhones expected to be available for purchase later this month, the iPhone 6 will likely eat into the iPhone 5â€™s market share.
iPhone upgrade patterns will probably become less cyclical as many of the cellular carriers in the U.S. have moved away from two-year contracts to a) paying off the cost of the iPhone and other smartphones in two years via monthly payments, and b) yearly upgrade programs. For those who are paying of their iPhones on a monthly basis, it will be psychologically more palatable to pay off the remaining balance of the iPhone early — to upgrade to the iPhone 6 — than to pay an ETF.
Many iPhone 5 users who have two-year contracts that expire around the time Apple makes the iPhone 6 available will upgrade to the iPhone 6. Although I am not thrilled with the industrial design of the iPhone 6 — assuming the leaks are true — there is that lure of NFC-based payments using nothing other than the iPhone 6.